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'The only issue the election could resolve was change.... Issues were an afterthought.' - Marc Zwelling.
Toronto (26 Jan. 2006) - An analysis of the Canadian election shows there is little or no basis to several "myths" that took hold during the campaign, says Vector Research, a labour polling and research group based in Toronto.
Myth 1 — It was about corruption.
"Corruption was a big motivator for Québec voters, but it was the voters' passion for change that made the Liberals' behaviour seem scandalous," says Vector President Marc Zwelling.
"The Conservatives' strategy was to peel away soft Liberals by harping on government corruption. But leader Stephen Harper still could move only a scant 6.7 percentage points' worth of votes from the 2004 Liberal support despite a towering two thirds who told pollsters it was a time for a new government," Zwelling notes.
"At a time that six in 10 Canadians said they wanted a different government, Harper's 36% support is pathetic. His was the only party with a chance to form a government. In the week before the election, an EKOS Research poll found that 30% wanted a majority Conservative government while 23% wanted a Conservative minority. So although half wanted Harper to win, he could only get a third to vote for him."
Meanwhile, the Liberal strategy to demonize Harper also failed miserably. "Harper had become so non-threatening that 80% said they wouldn't change their vote, if they thought there was going to be a Conservative government," Zwelling observes.
Myth 2 — It was about issues.
"The only issue the election could resolve was change.... Issues were an afterthought," argues Zwelling.
"Martin and Harper, however, campaigned on different issues. They couldn't disagree about abortion because Harper refused to have a policy on it. Both leaders agreed on tax cuts but disagreed on which taxes to cut, a distinction that was not dramatic enough for voters to change sides.... The election was actually a referendum on leadership, not policy."
Even then it was a tortured choice for many.
Although swing voters opted for change, the softening of Conservative support at the end of the campaign indicated "buyer's remorse as swing voters had second, third and even fourth thoughts about Harper as PM," Zwelling notes.
"Harper did not become the swing voters' favourite prime minister until they had made up their mind to vote Conservative to kick out the Liberals," he adds.
Myth 3 — Canada moved to the right.
"Actually Harper moved to the centre," the pollster says. "He deftly practiced the politics of parity. While the NDP's Jack Layton was trying to show how different his party was from the Liberals, Harper showed how much the Conservatives and Liberals are alike."
Myth 4 — The Conservative campaign was brilliant.
"It was brilliantly executed, but really it was incredible luck that gave Harper a minority government," Zwelling says.
"Just before Christmas, the RCMP announced an investigation of the finance minister, and the Liberals' support began drying up. Harper got lucky again the day after Christmas when a gunman fired into a crowd in downtown Toronto, killing a teen-aged bystander. In the hyper-competitive media market of Toronto, this local crime metastasized into national proportions overnight," he recalls.
"Crime is one issue the Conservatives owned. The shooting let Harper defend the Canadian family from drug lords and street gangs and blame Martin for every misdemeanor committed during the Liberals' long mandate."
Myth 5 — The advertising moved the voters.
"While the NDP, Liberals, Conservatives and Québec's Bloc Québécois bought TV time generously, there is no evidence it mattered," Zwelling says.
"Nationally, 62% said they had seen Conservative advertising and 68% had seen Liberal advertising. Only 28% recalled NDP ads," he notes, citing a January 15-17 Strategic Counsel poll.
"Among eligible voters who had seen any ads, 12% said it made them more likely to vote Liberal. Among Conservative ad viewers, 22% said it made them more likely to vote Conservative. Among those seeing NDP ads, 17% said the ads made them more likely to vote for Layton," he says.
"The NDP ads were weakest on this measurement. Seven in 10 voters said the ads hadn't affected their choice, compared with six in 10 who said Conservative and Liberal ads made no impression one way or the other."
Vector Research has conducted polls and focus groups for unions, including the National Union of Public and General Employees (NUPGE), and for private sector clients in Canada and the U.S. for more than 20 years. NUPGE